Analysis: Survey’s real message may be that English don’t really care that much

OF ONE thing we thought we could be sure when the independence referendum campaign whistle is eventually blown.

Unionists could legitimately claim that England wanted the Union to survive and thus ask Scots why they should want to spurn a neighbour with whom they had enjoyed an amicable relationship for over 300 years.

Winning the referendum would be a lot more difficult for unionists if it emerged that England had finally had enough of Alex Salmond’s apparently endless demands for more and come to the conclusion it would be better for both countries if Scotland were to become independent after all.

The SNP could argue that, far from constituting an unwanted “divorce”, independence would be an “amicable separation” sought by both sides.

So it is little wonder that yesterday Alex Salmond leapt upon a ComRes poll that showed 39 per cent of people across Great Britain as whole agreed “Scotland should be an independent country”, while only 38 per cent disagreed. Even when those living outside Scotland were excluded, the poll still suggested that as many people in England and Wales back independence as oppose it. Yet this finding is not as dramatic as it seems.

We have been here before. Back in January 2007, on the 300th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Union (before the SNP came to power), an ICM poll found no less than 48 per cent of people in England would approve of “Scotland becoming an independent country”, while only 39 per cent said they disapproved.

However, another poll, conducted by ORB, at exactly the same time reported 73 per cent would “like the Union to continue”, while just 18 per cent said that they wanted it “to end” after being advised that “if it were to end this would mean that Scotland would become an independent country”.

Two polls; same fieldwork dates; two very different outcomes.

So we should be wary of jumping to conclusions on the basis of the ComRes poll.

The secret to its result lies in the way it asked the question.

Polls that simply invite people in England to say whether they are for or against Scottish independence have a history of producing a pro-independence result that other approaches do not replicate.

Still, if England is so easily swayed by the way in which the issue is posed, perhaps the real truth is that few people in England have a very firm view on the subject at all.

• John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.