David Lee: We gambled before - and we can win again

As a former oil economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland, Mr Salmond has a long memory and he is likely to draw inspirational parallels from the oil industry. If Scotland managed to build a world-leading base for oil in Aberdeen in the 1970s, why can't we do it again almost 40 years later for renewables? And he might refer to a seminal event held in Aviemore in February 1972. Organised by the International Forum of the Scottish Council (Development and Industry), it had a simple title: Oil and Scotland's Future. The phrase was not in vogue then, but this too was "game-changing".

Just what a future that was going to be could never have been predicted by the 120 leaders of industrial, commercial and political life who ventured to the Highlands; by 1999, total North Sea oil production was peaking at around six million barrels a day. So what can be learned from that conference so long ago? Are there lessons to help the renewables industry?

Papers from the 1972 event make fascinating reading and provide genuine parallels with today that go far beyond "we did it once, we can do it again".

At the root of the renewables conundrum is money - it's a risky business. Experts suggest 10 billion will be needed across the UK at any one time until 2020 to fund offshore wind alone. The figures are staggering - and need to be found at the worst possible time. Yet the sums needed to fire up the oil industry in 1972 were similarly astronomical and in a way perhaps even more daunting because everything was new.Sir David Barran, chairman of Shell, told the 1972 Aviemore conference of his company's 21 million bid for the 211/21 block north-east of Shetland, one of the most sought-after areas of the North Sea, and put the cost of drilling exploration wells at about "1 million per hole". These were big numbers, but Sir David knew they would only get bigger. He suggested 2,500 million would be needed over ten years and used what he called "a grim Dutch proverb" that says: "The costs must be met before getting the return." Yet he was confident that Scots would be prepared to take the gamble; it was "undoubted", he said, that there would be "many opportunities for imaginative and forward-looking people prepared to accept that the business is a risk-taking industry". We now know he was correct.

Another comment by Sir David echoes one of the biggest concerns of today - the fear that Scotland will fall behind foreign competition, especially in manufacturing. For offshore wind turbines in 2010, read oil platforms in 1972. Sir David said: "To our regret, none of these units is being built in Britain, where neither the capability nor the interest appears at present to exist."

And this comment, on the need for Scotland to look to export technological innovation, could be in a draft speech for the 2010 event: "Why limit ourselves to Scotland and the UK? Once we develop this technological base and work up the skills to supply the more difficult technology, the world is our oyster. We can take on the Americans and Dutch at their own game." This refrain is often heard in the current climate - for example, with regard to the innovative wave power devices produced by Pelamis and Aquamarine.

Yet those very same companies, often lauded by government, have had real problems identifying sufficient funding. As Max Carcas of Pelamis Wave told The Scotsman's green economy conference in May, his company lived a "hand-to-mouth existence" for many years, pulling together funds from disparate sources.

Such difficulties are often rooted in claims that renewables technology is "unproven" - making investors reluctant to commit funds. Back in 1972, there was similar scepticism. The chairman of the Committee of Scottish Clearing Bankers told the Aviemore conference that the basis of any investment prospectus was its history and "Scotland does not have any history in the oil industry". In other words, it was a risky business where the technology was unproven and Scotland had to demonstrate further expertise before the money started flowing. Sounds familiar?

There are other strong parallels - one of the big issues for this month's conference is getting money into infrastructure, and quickly.Continental Europe, notable Germany, is investing far bigger sums and stealing a huge march on Scotland in providing the port facilities to service offshore renewables.

Back in 1972, infrastructure for the oil industry was a similarly massive issue - and Secretary of State Gordon Campbell promised at the conference that "all necessary central government support should be available in the early stages to help provide the infrastructure required for the new industrial developments".

Yet there were some stern words for Mr Campbell from Dr William Robertson, executive vice-president of the SCDI. He warned that large-scale funds channelled through a new development authority were desperately needed, because existing government activity was unable to match the speed and scale of oil industry activity.

So the problems of oil in 1972 were very much the same as those of renewables in 2010 - a lack of infrastructure, the devil of unproven technology, challenges from abroad, the failure to link up the public and private sectors and the biggest headache of all - where was all the money going to come from to get things moving?

The papers from Aviemore do not give the sense that a huge, successful new industry was in any way inevitable. There was apprehension, fear and uncertainty over a whole range of issues - yet there was also an excitement that Scotland was on the cusp of something huge and plenty of people convinced anything was possible.

Massive technological and financial problems had to be resolved, but the big brains at Aviemore insisted they were not insurmountable. Scotland rose to enormous challenges in the 1970s and created a global hub in Aberdeen. Almost 40 years on, can it use the SLCI conference as a springboard to raise its game for a new era?

The challenges are similarly huge, but in a sense, Scotland is in a better position in 2010 than 1972 - by virtue of the fact that the oil industry did rise to the challenge and solve many fundamental questions. Massive infrastructure problems were resolved, world-leading technical and engineering skills were harnessed and a complex supply chain and support network developed around the oil industry.

The success of the 1970s is hugely significant today - and many working in the renewables field repeat it, loud and often: there are massive opportunities to transfer the skills and the enormous experience from the oil industry to its younger renewables cousin. In 1972, the risks and the potential opportunities were extremely high. In 2010, Scotland is on the cusp of something big once more.

Can it rise to the challenge? It certainly has the political will and business acumen to do so, but it also has one other major factor in its favour - Scotland has been here before. The legacy of 1970s success might just prove the decisive factor in delivering a new green economy for Scotland.

• The SLCI conference will be held at the EICC on 28-29 September. www.slciconference.com