If Scotland exercise the same self-control as at Twickenham and prevent Ireland from camping in our 22, we should win

Scotland were disciplined in the Calcutta Cup win over England at Twickenham. Picture: David Rogers/Getty Images

Our last Six Nations win against Ireland was in 2017, and since then we have also lost to them in the World Cup and in the improvised Nations Cup at the tail-end of last year. There have been games we let slip, but one has the uncomfortable feeling that Ireland have had our measure for rather too long now. They expect to beat Scotland, and do so.

Still, this year may be different. Though the Irish provinces again dominate the Pro14, the national team comes to Murrayfield having lost to Wales and France and beaten only Italy. It’s true that they must believe they should have beaten Wales – just as we should have done - but they were strangely unsure of themselves and lacking in ambition against France. Nevertheless they remain a very hard team to beat. They have lots of experience while also enjoying enviable strength in depth. If a Lions tour goes ahead, one would expect to see at least eight Irishmen in Gatland’s squad.

An interesting statistic was brought to my notice the other day. Ireland and France have each scored nine tries in the tournament to date - Ireland in three matches, France in two. Six of the French tries came from movements or passages of play that began in their own half; none of Ireland’s did. This is slightly surprising, given the quality of their back three, but it suggests that the first requirement when playing Ireland is to keep them pinned in their own half of the field.